Archive for the 'Real Estate Market Reports' Category
That question seems to haunt me these days. Sometimes it seems that the price for leaving my home to buy a quart of milk is to be asked that question at least once. Unfortunately, I generally leave my crystal ball at home.
The answer to that question in part depends on how you define “recover”. I’m not trying to be cute here. A buyers definition of “recover” may be entirely different from a sellers perspective which is different still from a homeowner who simply wants to refinance but can’t because of tighter lending standards.
To buyers who are turning up their noses at what I believe to be a once-in-a -lifetime opportunity – I often respond that the market will recover a year before they decide they have to buy. Those who are determined to time the bottom of a market are destined to miss it.
For sellers, the answer is more complex. What sellers are looking for is a robust market with a substantial price hike from present values. Although all bad things come to an end, if you are looking for the glory days of 2005-2006, you will probably have a long wait.
Some areas are recovering while others decline:
Some parts of Westchester NY are already recovering. In areas such as Scarsdale and Larchmont, we saw our fair share of competitive bidding this year. This breath of fresh air was restricted to single-family homes in specific municipalities. Prices in these areas are well off their lows in spite of continuing declines elsewhere. But some markets that had been remarkably resistant to correction took a sickening nosedive in prices. If you live in a high-end cooperative or a townhouse, you probably know what I am talking about.
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A few weeks ago, I noticed that my friend from the Manhattan real estate market – Mitchell Hall, had posted some very encouraging data. Manhattan is doing quite well in spite of the doom and gloom coming from the talking heads. All real estate is local – so what happens nationally has little bearing on individual markets. New York State was one of the stronger markets in the country. The New York metro area posted 3% gain in housing prices overall. The medain price was up 9% over the previous year and up 4% per square foot. Amazing performance given the state of the rest of the economy.
What does this mean for Westchester NY real estate? Well, as Manhattan goes – so goes Westchester. If prices in the city are edging higher eventually that wave hits Westchester as even hard-core Manhattanites consider mass immigration to….gasp…..the SUBURBS!!!! And Westchester – particularly lower Westchester is the most logical move.
For Manhattanites – Westchester is the location of choice when they make a move.
About a year ago, I was looking at a “heat map” of human migration across the US. The map showed areas of the country that were emptying out such as the rust belt as well as areas that were seeing increased populations. It was neat. When I clicked on Westchester, I couldn’t see anyone moving in. At first I thought our county was emptying out at a crazy rate….which made no sense….but then I realized that the map was too small. You couldn’t see the bee-line of immigration from NYC, Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island. When I increased the size of the map to its maximum – there it was. The fact is that Westchester is the location of choice for people leaving NYC. If Manhattanites were a herd of buffalo – Westchester would be tracking the periodic stampedes as obsessively as we track the weather.
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The river towns comprise the towns/villages in Westchester that are located along the Hudson River. This blog covers the lower Westchester region primarily in the town of Greenburgh. Sleepy Hollow is included since it shares a school district with Tarrytown. Initially I ran these statistics on Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow, but the sales volume was too low to create reliable statistics.
In general, prices in the river towns such as Tarrytown NY showed some signs of stabilization in the river towns. Certainly the area has been badly beaten up over the past few years, so it was good to see a slowdown in declining prices.
Cooperatives:
The pricing for cooperatives was dicey because during the 4th quarter there were practically no 2BR sales. This skewed the price point dramatically downwards. Although the number indicates a decline of over 34% from the previous year, this market is nowhere near that unstable. Because of the unusual sales pattern decent sales figures were almost impossible to come by. However the increase in sales volume of 120% indicates a recovering market. The 6 month inventory reflects a slowly declining market. So the numbers indicate a level or slightly declining market creating some good news for buyers and sellers a like.
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Larchmont Property underwent a downturn over the past year. Traditionally, this market had been quite resistant to recession forces however, the crash of 2008 brought prices down. But while it brought prices down those lower prices brought out buyers – particularly in the single family home market. Always desirable for its schools, easy commute and great location, homes for sale Larchmont NY are always in demand. Inventories are relatively low when compared to the rest of Westchester.
Larchmont NY Cooperatives:
At first glance, it appears as if cooperatives in Larchmont underwent a significant price increase over Q4 2008. But that didn’t square with comperables in individual complexes. Looking closer, there was a descrepancy in the number of 1 BR vs. 2 BR units sold. So much so that it skewed the numbers. Instead of prices being up over 18% – when I compared 1 BR coops from Q4 2008 to Q4 2009 – prices were actually down over 22%. Inventories are consistant with single digit depreciation with about 8 months of overhang on the market. Sales volume remained steady over the previous year – which is a positive sign in spite of the price drop.
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The Scarsdale market began its correction towards the end of 2007. Scarsdale homes went down substantially in value through 2008. In spite of the financial meltdown at the end of 2008, the Scarsdale market has actually been firming up over the past year. Although this has not been smooth ride, there are signs that the market is stabilizing – or at least depreciating at a slower rate. In many ways the Q4 data reflects the Q2 data where year over year home values had started to nudge up. In Q3 many of these gains were erased, but they were back in the 4th quarter.
There are several issues that could derail this trend. Subsidies for mortgages will be ending putting pressure on interest rates. Further, Scarsdale is not immune to the shadow inventory of foreclosures that have yet to hit the market. the high-end will probably not be spared a share of short sales and foreclosures.
Scarsdale NY Cooperatives:
Cooperative sales prices remained stable from the previous year with the average sales price of $251,000 for both years. Sales volume was impressive when compared to the doldrums of the post-crash 2008 – up 72% over the previous year. The swollen inventories have decreased and there is only a 4.9 month inventory currently on the market. This is consistent with stable prices.
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The Hartsdale NY housing market is in buyer’s market mode. Prices for coops, condos and single family homes all experienced price reductions when 
compared with the third quarter of the previous year. This was the second year of price reductions for the area. Volume was variable with single-family home sales being down 70% over the previous year while there was a slight increase in the number of coop sales.
Hartsdale Cooperatives:
Coop prices dropped 11.1% over the previous year with the average price being $192k for Q3 2009. That was enough to make them a desirable purchase. This was particularly true of East Hartsdale Ave. Demand remained high and volume was up 1% from 2008. There is a 5.8 month inventory on the market – making it a borderline buyer’s market in terms of inventory. Prices have dropped nearly 15% from Q3 2007 – which is roughly when sales prices peaked. This is still a buyer’s market, but the reduction in inventory and stable sales volume indicates that we may be near the bottom.
Hartsdale Condominiums:
Condos didn’t fare as well as cooperatives. Sales prices were down nearly 13% from the previous year. The average sales price for the third quarter was $370k down from $425k in 2008. Sales volume was down 33.3% and there is currently an 8 month inventory on the market creating a definite buyer’s market. This market didn’t really start declining until after the stock market crash – so it may have some more adjustments ahead.
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Following the stock market crash of 2008, home prices in White Plains finally took a hit. This market had remained remarkably sturdy up to the fourth 
quarter of 2008. The correction has been an abrupt one. The third quarter market reports reflect a market that is experiencing a major correction. The declines are steady but not alarming. This is the first time that White Plains has have every single factor in buyer’s market territory.
White Plains Cooperatives:
The average price of a cooperative in White Plains has decreased to $181,000 – down $36,000 or near 17% from Q3 of 2008. Sales volume was also down 38.5%. Although sales picked up over the summer months inventories remain in excess of 12 months. This is an excellent buying opportunity and sellers need to be realistic when pricing their homes.
White Plains Condominiums:
Condos have seen a sharp decline in prices. This is to be expected because during the boom a large number of condos were built creating a “natural” glut. Sales prices are down 16.1% over the previous year to $463,000 – down $89,000 over the previous year. Sales volume was down 20% over the previous year. Once again – this is a buyer’s market and sellers need to price their units to sell.
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New Rochelle was a city that was coming into its own when the housing recession hit in full force. The downtown has been in the process of a major rehabilitation. Today, you can see the benefits of that effort, but with a depressed housing market, prices have stalled out and there are bargains to be had.
Make no mistake, New Rochelle is still up-and-coming. Whereas it does not have the attraction of being as fully “established” as its sister city, White Plains – the future looks bright. Many who want White Plains, but find it inaccessible price-wise find themselves attracted to New Rochelle. New Rochelle also has something land-locked White Plains will never be able to offer – water front property on the Long Island Sound.
Buyers who were disappointed that the White Plains market didn’t crash through the floor – should stop wishing for the impossible and give New Rochelle a second look.
Cooperatives:
Coop sales are down 33% over the previous year with prices slightly elevated. Given the low volume, I would associate the price rise to be due to random gyrations and describe the pricing as declining slightly or just flat. There is a 19 month inventory on the market – making this a buyer’s market.
Condominiums:
Condos in New Rochelle took a plunge. Prices are down 26.3% over the previous year with about 35 months of inventory left on the market. This market was overbuilt during the boom. The overbuilding included too many town houses along with the high-rise condos of Trump Plaza. Volume is off over 33% from the previous year as well. This is a market that buyers should be actively seeking – not shunning.
This is the first time I’m including several “River Towns” of lower Westchseter in one report. The reason for this is that because of low sales volume in each individual village, it is difficult to nail down market trends. The small numbers produce wild gyrations that are often the result of one or two sales at the high or low end of the spectrum. Including villages that have similar price ranges, commutes and tax structures in one report creates a more accurate picture of the area.
The River Towns included in these stats are in the lower portion of “Area 3″, including Hastings-on-Hudson, Dobbs Ferry, Ardsley, Irvington and Tarrytown (which are all part of the town of Greenburgh.) Also included is Sleepy Hollow – which shares a school system with Tarrytown. Sleepy Hollow is located in the town of Mt. Pleasant.
Cooperatives:
In the second quarter of 2009 13 cooperative units sold – down 50% from the previous year. Prices remained firm and were even up nearly 5% over the previous year. Difficulty in securing a loan may be the primary reason for the drop in volume as consumer desire for entry level housing is returning. It is still a buyer’s market with a little over 11 months of inventory on the market.
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Larchmont seemed to be impervious to market forces. Prices on single family homes kept climbing, national housing crisis notwithstanding. And why not? Larchmont is an easy commute to NYC (30 minutes). It’s got wonderful shops with a nice village feel, fine dining, nice boutiques, terrific schools and established neighborhoods brimming with old-world charm. Add Manor Park along the Long Island Sound to the mix – the proximity of downtown White Plains and New Rochelle and you’ve got a winning combination. But nothing can go up forever and the stock market crash has impacted the housing market.
Cooperatives:
Coops in Larchmont look as if they rose significantly in price. But this flies in the face of experience and common sense. The raw stats sighted below show a 33% price increase which is crazy. On closer examination, the 2008 stats were artificially low due to the large quantity of studios and small 1 BR units that sold. So skewed were these numbers that closer examination revealed a 6-7% price decrease. This was accomplished by comparing 1BR units that sold in 2008 to those sold in 2009. The same was done for 2 BR units. The inventory also indicates a buyers market with about a 24 month supply of units on the market. Volume is down 50% over the previous year. Compared to other markets, this decrease is far from dramatic. But this is a good time for buyers to enter this market.
