The answer to that question in part depends on how you define “recover”.  I’m not trying to be cute here.  A buyers definition of “recover” may be entirely different from a sellers perspective which is different still from a homeowner who simply wants to refinance  but can’t because of tighter lending standards.

To buyers who are turning up their noses at what I believe to be a once-in-a -lifetime opportunity – I often respond that the market will recover a year before they decide they have to buy.  Those who are determined to time  the bottom of a market are destined to miss it.

For sellers, the answer is more complex.  What sellers are looking for is a robust market with a substantial price hike from present values.  Although all bad things come to an end, if you are looking for the glory days of 2005-2006, you will probably have a long wait.

Some areas are recovering while others decline:

Some parts of Westchester NY  are already recovering. In areas such as Scarsdale and Larchmont, we saw our fair share of competitive bidding this year.  This breath of fresh air was restricted to single-family homes in specific municipalities.  Prices in these areas are well off their lows in spite of continuing declines elsewhere.  But   some markets that had been remarkably resistant to correction took a  sickening nosedive in prices.  If you live in a high-end cooperative or a townhouse, you probably know what I am talking about.

Supply and Demand: 

Housing prices reflect supply and demand.  You can not have a robust recovery until demand returns.  Although there are hopeful signs for the Spring of 2012, we saw those signs in 2011 and our hopes were dashed by the stock market correction that was the result of the Euro crisis. First time buyers were out in droves in the spring and summer. But any bad news gives  buyers a big case of cold feet and the rush back to their rentals and renew their leases.  What looked to be a great spring/summer market flopped miserably as buyers dove for cover.  With no demand prices sank again and many sellers couldn’t find buyers for their homes.

What happened to demand during the crash?

To get a perspective on this, here is a chart of simple housing sales volume since the year 2000.   The market in 2000 was not in bubble mode, it was a fairly normal, market. So the sales volume of 2000 -2001 could be considered a reflection of normal.  The bubble started and sales volume peaked  in 2004 to over 9800 properties sold.   Sales volume decreased from that point on  and finally crashes in 2008  tumbling  26% in a single year.  The declines continued in 2009.  Prices followed the loss in sales volume and there you have it – a housing crisis was born.

NOTE: All data was taken from the EAMLS and includes  sales  of single-family homes, condos and cooperatives.  Rentals, multifamily homes, and rentals were not included as they represent a different type of market.

Where are we now?

Sales volume in 2011 was down from the 2010 when the tax credit was in place, but up from the lows of 2009 by about 6%.  But we have a long way to go to get back to healthy demand.  We are 41% below the peak volume of 2004 and 26% off from the more normal market of 2000.

With demand remaining low sellers will have to think in terms of the long haul.  Although I have no crystal ball, these numbers and common sense suggest that a healthy market with regular price increases is a long way off.  With demand at such low levels, we could be bouncing along the bottom price-wise for about 5 years.

What should a seller do?  

So….if you want to move because your home is no longer affordable, or it no longer suits your needs (your family is growing or contracting)  it is probably wise to sell.  We can not live in a state of suspended animation forever and there is something to be said about getting on with your life.   If affordability is an issue, the continuing outlay will negate any real benefit of a price increases down the road.  Also, if you sell in order to purchase something that better fits your needs, you are going to do well on your purchase.  However, if you are comfortable  with your outlay and can sustain it with ease, or if your space is truly workable for several more years, then perhaps staying put is the best option.   There is no right or wrong answer and one-size certainly doesn’t fit all.

For further information about your area,  feel free to contact  me by phone – (914-374-5529) or email – (Ruthmarie.Hicks@gmail.com) or  you can simply fill out the form below – whichever method you prefer.  Don’t worry  – I do not sell, spam, or otherwise abuse your information!

© 2012 Ruthmarie G. Hicks http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

What does this mean for Westchester NY real estate?  Well, as Manhattan goes – so goes Westchester.  If prices in the city are edging higher eventually that wave hits Westchester as even hard-core Manhattanites consider mass immigration to….gasp…..the SUBURBS!!!!  And Westchester – particularly lower Westchester is the most logical move.

For Manhattanites – Westchester is the location of choice when they make a move. 

About a year ago, I was looking at a “heat map” of human migration across the US.   The map showed areas of the country that  were emptying out  such as the rust belt as well as  areas that were seeing increased populations.   It was neat.   When I clicked on Westchester, I couldn’t see anyone moving in.  At first I thought our county was emptying out at a crazy rate….which made no sense….but then I realized that the map was too small. You couldn’t see the bee-line of immigration from NYC, Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island.  When I increased the size of the map to its maximum – there it was.  The fact is that Westchester is the location of choice  for people leaving NYC.   If Manhattanites were a herd of buffalo – Westchester would be tracking the periodic stampedes as obsessively as we track the weather.

Westchester NY now has the amenities that city dwellers seek – this isn’t your parents suburb.

And why not?  Westchester has changed a lot over 20 years.  It is no longer the series of sleepy villages and towns of yesteryear. Once Manhattanites get over the mind set that Westchester is merely a country bumpkin backwater (which takes just one visit)  the benefits of living here are clear.    Its  costs a whole lot less and you get a lot more space without giving up the fine dining, shopping and entertainment that NYC has to offer.   Upscale restaurants and retail are everywhere and we are catching up in entertainment and the arts.  You don’t need to go to the city for a night out on the town or a first class shopping spree.  That’s all here now.  And if they want the city – its about 30 minutes away.    From some locations the commute to midtown and downtown is as easy or easier than some locations in the city itself and they can enjoy a smooth, easy and productive  20-40 minutes  on metro-north train rather than being crammed like a sardine standing for 30 minutes on a subway.

Soooo a healthy market in Manhattan is a harbinger of a healthy market in Westchester – particularly lower Westchester.  Areas within a 40 minute commute by metro-north are particularly attractive when prices are rising in the city.

© 2011 – Ruthmarie G. Hicks  http://thewestchesterview.com

In general, prices in the river towns such as Tarrytown NY showed some signs of stabilization in the river towns. Certainly the area has been badly beaten up over the past few years, so it was good to see a slowdown in declining prices.

Cooperatives:

The pricing for cooperatives was dicey because during the 4th quarter there were practically no 2BR sales.  This skewed the price point dramatically  downwards.  Although the number indicates a decline of over 34% from the previous year, this market is nowhere near that unstable. Because  of the unusual sales pattern decent sales figures were almost impossible to come by.  However the increase in sales volume of 120% indicates a recovering market.  The 6 month inventory reflects a slowly declining market.  So the numbers indicate a level or slightly declining market creating  some good news for buyers and sellers a like.

Condominiums:

Condos went up in price quite dramatically. But that increase doesn’t impress me so much because it probably reflects the sale of high end units at Hudson Harbor in Tarrytown – skewing prices northward.  However sales volume for the river towns is up 67%.  There is considerable inventory on the market indicating that although sales are up – price declines may continue for a while.

Single Family Homes:

Single family homes showed 5.5% declines over 2008 which is far less severe than in previous years.  There is still an 8 month inventory hanging over the market, but sales volume was up 31% over the 4th quarter of 2008.

© 2010 Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com. All rights reserved.

Larchmont NY Cooperatives:

At first glance, it appears as if cooperatives in Larchmont underwent a significant price increase over Q4 2008.  But that didn’t square with comperables in individual complexes. Looking closer, there was a descrepancy in the number of 1 BR vs. 2 BR units sold. So much so that it skewed the numbers.  Instead of prices being up over 18% – when I compared 1 BR coops from Q4 2008 to Q4 2009 – prices were actually down over 22%.  Inventories are consistant with single digit depreciation with about 8 months of overhang on the market.  Sales volume remained steady over the previous year – which is a positive sign in spite of the price drop.

Larchmont Single Family Homes:

Single family homes underwent a significant price drop over Q4 of 2008 – nearly 16%.  This price drop in part reflects difficulties at the high-end because of the jumbo loan market.  Nevertheless, there was a significant price adjustment in the entire market. However sales remained brisk with sales volume holding steady over the previous year. Inventories are low.  Currently there is only a 4.3 month inventory. This is consistent with a stable or even slightly appreciating market.

We can not know what, if any effect the shadow market of foreclosures will have on this market.  Were it not for this issue and the prospect of rising interest rates, this would be looking like a market that is about to roar back.  But for now, a wait and see attitude is best. It’s a great time to buy but sellers should price competitively.

Please note that all data was derived from the WPMLS.

Further Reading:

Housing and Market Statistics for Larchmont NY – Second Quarter 2009

Housing and Market Statistics for Larchmont NY – First Quarter 2009

© 2010 Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com.  All rights reserved.

There are several issues that could derail this trend.  Subsidies  for mortgages will be ending putting pressure on interest rates.  Further, Scarsdale is not immune to the shadow inventory of foreclosures that have yet to hit the market.  the high-end will probably not be spared a share of short sales and foreclosures.

Scarsdale NY Cooperatives:

Cooperative sales prices remained stable from the previous year with the average sales price of $251,000  for both years.  Sales volume was impressive when compared to the doldrums of the post-crash 2008 – up 72% over the previous year.   The swollen inventories have decreased and there is only a 4.9 month inventory currently on the market.  This is consistent with stable prices.

Scarsdale NY Condominiums:

Although Scarsdale is known for its find cooperatives particularly those along Garth Road (Eastchester municipality)  near the village and train station.  However, condominiums are few and far between. There were no sales of condos recorded on the MLS for Q4 2009.  Christie Place will set the standard for condo sales in the future.

Scarsdale NY Single Family Homes:

Scarsdale homes had a very good quarter. Prices were up 24.1% over Q4 of the previous year.  Inventories are down, but not out.  A 6.7 month inventory is consistent with continued depreciation but in the single digits.  Nevertheless, demand is way up from the near stand-still of Q4 2008 with sales volume being up 95% over the previous year.

Edgemont Single Family Homes (Scarsdale PO):

Prices were still down in Edgemont over the previous.  Down 18.2% from the previous year. This drop is closer to what was seen in White Plains and Hartsdale during Q4.  Sales volume was up 33% but with a 9.7 month inventory, prices are probably still falling.

An Important Note About the Criteria for the Statistics:

I handle each type of housing in Scarsdale differently. I also include a special section for single family homes in “Edgemont” which is really in the town of Greenburgh with a Scarsdale post-office and zip code.
For condominiums and cooperatives, I use the Scarsdale post office and zip code as my criteria. Many of these complexes are actually located in Greenburgh and Eastchester.

This reflects the way most buyer’s shop for housing. Coop and condo buyers work by address whereas those looking for single-family homes are often shopping municipality and school districts.

Further Reading:

Scarsdale NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Third Quarter 2009.

Housing and Market Statistics for Scarsdale NY – Second Quarter 2009.

© 2010 Ruthmarie G. Hicks, http://thewestchesterview.com.  All rights reserved.

Hartsdale Cooperatives:

Coop prices dropped 11.1% over the previous year with the average price being $192k for Q3 2009. That was enough to make them a desirable purchase.  This was particularly true of East Hartsdale Ave.  Demand remained high and volume was up 1% from 2008.   There is a 5.8 month inventory on the market – making it a borderline buyer’s market in terms of inventory.   Prices have dropped nearly 15% from Q3 2007 – which is roughly when sales prices peaked. This is still a buyer’s market, but the reduction in inventory and stable sales volume indicates that we may be near the bottom.

Hartsdale Condominiums:

Condos didn’t fare as well as cooperatives.  Sales prices were down nearly 13% from the previous year.  The average sales price for the third quarter was $370k down from $425k in 2008.  Sales volume was down 33.3% and there is currently an 8 month inventory on the market creating a definite buyer’s market.  This market didn’t really start declining until after the stock market crash – so it may have some more adjustments ahead.

Hartsdale Single-Family Homes:

The price of a single-family home was up about 2.3% – however, I would not consider this to be a true improvement.  The volume was so low, that this probably reflects the nature of the homes that actually sold more than an uptick in prices.  Volume is down 70% from Q3 in 2008.  Further, that low volume translates into over two years of inventory on the market – making this a definite buyer’s market.  The market is down less than 8% from the peak indicating it may have a way to go.  Sellers should price homes realistically, while buyers should enjoy great opportunities in the coming months.

Further Reading:

Hartsdale NY – Market Statistics for 3rd Quarter 2008

Hartsdale NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Fourth Quarter 2008

Hartsdale NY – Housing and Market Statistics for First Quarter 2009

Housing and Market Statistics for Hartsdale NY – Second Quarter 2009

© 2009 Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com. All rights reserved.

White Plains Cooperatives:

The average price of a cooperative in White Plains has decreased to $181,000 – down $36,000 or near 17% from Q3 of 2008.  Sales volume was also down 38.5%.  Although sales picked up over the summer months inventories remain in excess of 12 months.  This is an excellent buying opportunity and sellers need to be realistic when pricing their homes.

White Plains Condominiums:

Condos have seen a sharp decline in prices. This is to be expected because during the boom a large number of condos were built creating a “natural” glut.  Sales prices are down 16.1% over the previous year to $463,000 – down $89,000 over the previous year. Sales volume was down 20% over the previous year.  Once again – this is a buyer’s market and sellers need to price their units to sell.

White Plains Single Family Homes:

Single family homes fared slightly better – at least at the starter level.  Homes in the move-up range were another story.  WIth jumbo loans hard to get and with a large pool of would-be move up buyers dealing with a depreciating values in the homes they are in – this is to be expected.  There is a glimmer of hope for entry level single family homes – but the rest of the market is languishing.  Prices are down 13.3% or $85,000 off the Q3 2008 average.

Further Reading:

Housing and Market Statistics for White Plains NY – Second Quarter 2009

White Plains NY – Housing and Market Statistics for First Quarter 2009

White Plains NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Fourth Quarter 2008:

White Plains NY – Housing & Market Statistics for 3rd Quarter 2008

© 2009 Ruthmarie G. Hicks, http://thewestchesterview.com

Make no mistake, New Rochelle is still up-and-coming. Whereas it does not have the attraction of being as fully “established” as its sister city, White Plains  – the future looks bright.  Many who want White Plains, but find it inaccessible price-wise find themselves attracted to New Rochelle.  New Rochelle also has something land-locked White Plains will never be able to offer – water front property on the Long Island Sound.

Buyers who were disappointed that the White Plains market didn’t crash through the floor – should stop wishing for the impossible and give New Rochelle a second look.

Cooperatives:

Coop sales are down 33% over the previous year with prices slightly elevated.  Given the low volume, I would associate the price rise to be due to  random gyrations and describe the pricing as declining slightly or just flat.  There is a 19 month inventory on the market – making this a buyer’s market.

Condominiums:

Condos in New Rochelle took a plunge.  Prices are down 26.3% over the previous year with about 35 months of inventory left on the market.  This market was overbuilt during the boom.  The overbuilding included too many town houses along with the high-rise condos of Trump Plaza.  Volume is off over 33% from the previous year as well.  This is a market that buyers should be actively seeking – not shunning.

Single Family Homes:

The divergence between the high-end and low-end markets shows very distinctly here.  The stats generally show a 4% price change, but that change is much greater at the high end where sales are very depressed.  If you use $800k as the cut-off between the markets, the dichotomy is very clear.  In the under $800k range – 48 homes sold while only 9 sold that were over $800k.  Add to that the difference in inventory – 9 months for under $800k, 36 months at the high-end and you have two very different markets.

Further Reading:

Housing and Market Statistics for New Rochelle NY – First Quarter 2009.

New Rochelle NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Fourth Quarter 2008.

© 2009 Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com.  All rights reserved.

The River Towns included in these stats are in the lower portion of “Area 3″,  including Hastings-on-Hudson, Dobbs Ferry, Ardsley, Irvington and Tarrytown (which are all part of the town of Greenburgh.) Also included is Sleepy Hollow – which shares a school system with Tarrytown.  Sleepy Hollow is located in the town of Mt. Pleasant.

Cooperatives:

In the second quarter  of 2009 13 cooperative units sold – down 50% from the previous year.  Prices remained firm and were even up nearly 5% over the previous year.  Difficulty in securing  a loan may be the primary reason for the  drop in volume as consumer desire for entry level housing is returning.   It is still a buyer’s market with a little over 11 months of inventory on the market.

Condominiums:

14 condos sold in Q2 2009. Volume was down 39% over the previous year and prices dropped 6.5%.   Some complexes were hit particularly hard while others remained more stable price-wise.  With 15.5 months of inventory on the market, it is a good time to consider buying.  Sellers will have to be realistic in order to get their units sold.

Single-Family Homes:

There are two distinct markets in single family homes.  Moderately priced homes under $800,000 and homes over $800,000.  I draw the line there because for most buyers of homes in that upper price range,  a jumbo loan is required.  Rates on jumbo loans have been high and so financing on the higher-end homes has become very difficult.

Sales volume is down nearly 23% from 2008.  Overall, prices have dropped 20% – but this is partly a reflection of the type of home that is actually selling.  The statistics get skewed downward because fewer luxury homes are selling.  The market for homes  over $800k is definitely in buyer’s market territory with over 40 months of inventory on the market.  Although moderately priced homes are still in buyer’s market territory, that market is healthier with about 14 months of inventory.  There are a substantial number of contracts and pendings -which once closed would improve the inventory numbers.

Further Reading:

Housing and Market Statistics for Tarrytown & Sleepy Hollow NY – First Quarter 2009.

Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow NY, Housing and Market Statistics for Fourth Quarter 2008.

© 2009 Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com.   All rights reserved.

Cooperatives:

Coops in Larchmont look as if they rose significantly in price.  But this flies in the face of experience and common sense.  The raw stats sighted below show a 33% price increase which is crazy.  On closer examination, the 2008 stats were artificially low due to the large quantity of studios and small 1 BR units that sold.  So skewed were these numbers that closer examination revealed a 6-7% price decrease.  This was accomplished by comparing 1BR units that sold in 2008 to those sold in 2009. The same was done for 2 BR units.   The inventory also indicates a buyers market with about a 24 month supply of units on the market.  Volume is down 50% over the previous year.  Compared to other markets, this decrease is far from dramatic. But this is a good time for buyers to enter this market.

Condominiums:

There were so few condo sales that I can not draw too many conclusions.  Prices appear to be down about 8% – but this is difficult to measure as only one condo closed in Q2.   There are currently 7 for sale.  At the present rate of sales, that creates an inventory of about 21 months.

Single Family Homes:

Average sales prices fell 21% over the previous year.  Some of this drop is undoubtedly a reflection of the  crisis in jumbo loans.  This has skewed sales towards more modest dwellings.  Prices have undergone a significant drop, but it is probably not as much as the raw data indicates.  Currently there is a near 12 month inventory sitting on the market as well as a 48% decrease in sales volume over the previous year.

Further Reading:

1.  Housing and Market Statistics for Larchmont NY – First Quarter 2009.

2.  Larchmont NY, Housing and Market Statistics for Fourth Quarter 2008.

3. Larchmont, NY – Housing & Market Statistics for 3rd Quarter 2008.

4.  The village of Larchmont in a snow storm…

© 2009 – Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.