Westchester View

The White Plains housing market finally to its hit when the stock market crashed in late 2008.  Until that time, the White Plains market – along with much of lower Westchester had resisted the declines that had occurred in other parts of the country.   Prices dropped sharply and as credit markets froze up, sales volume dropped to a trickle by the end of Q4 2008.  The winter was long and harsh as sales volume continued to stay low.  This was mostly  due to the tighter lending standards and a general reluctance to buy for those who actually had the credit to do so.

Buyer interest started to increase at the beginning of the 2nd quarter as lower prices and the stimulus package pulled buyers off the fence.  Towards the end of the quarter there were many more contracts and pendings.  The question in early June was whether or not the banks would actually fund all of the loans.  Fortunately, things started looking up and the market is again moving, although volume is lower than in years past is the order of the day.  This can be attributed to tighter lending standards.

Cooperatives:

Coops actually showed a price increase over the 2nd quarter of 2008. The 2.7% increase was small – but compared to the decreases seen in the condo and SF home markets, it is an encouraging sign. Coops are the entry level purchase for most first time buyers – which explains the resilience.   Sales volume overall is still down 24% over the previous year while inventory is estimated at about 12.5 months.  The inventory pressure will keep prices in check, but all in all – the coop market has fared better than the rest of White Plains housing.

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New Rochelle was in the middle of a major revival when the housing recession hit hard.  The result is that this up and coming city took a bigger hit earlier in the housing recession than its more well-established “sister city”  White Plains.

New Rochelle is now where White Plains was about 10 years ago.   Geographically, it has many things going for it.  It has the Long Island Sound along its eastern border which gives it a distinct aesthetic  edge over the land-locked White Plains.  It has a train station complete with a  new parking facility and boasts a 30 minute commute to Grand Central Station.  Granted it has a way to go before it becomes as established as White Plains, but  for those just can’t afford what they want in White Plains, their dollars will stretch further in New Rochelle.

The downturn in prices presents buyers with a unique opportunity.  Though there is risk in such an opportunity, all bad cycles come to an end and New Rochelle prices are truly reflecting a corrected market.  Add to that the fact that those buying now are getting in closer to the “ground floor” than they possibly could in White Plains.  Buyers should take notice because this is an area ripe with opportunity that fully established areas lack.
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Yes, this report is very late…I’m including it in order for readers to have a complete picture of this market as we move through the year.
Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow housing stats are giving us many mixed signals.  Pricing appears to have stabilized, but  inventories remain high given the low rate of sales – which will continue to put pricing under pressure.

Cooperatives:

Coops showed a pricing increase over the previous year by roughly 6%.  The number of units sold in both years was quite small, so these statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt.  The current inventory reveals a 9 month supply of coops currently on the market – which is actually a good deal less than other parts of the county. The average sales price for a coop in Tarrytown/Sleepy Hollow was $146,000 for the first quarter.

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Over the past few quarters, Larchmont had been seemingly impervious to the market gyrations that were impacting the rest of Westchester County with varying impact.  Like White Plains, it took the Wall Street crisis and the temporary freezing of the credit markets to shake things up.

There are relatively few condos in Larchmont, so this discussion will be limited to cooperatives and single family homes.  In general, cooperatives fared reasonably well, but single-family home values took a significant hit.

Cooperatives:

Coops actually showed a slight increase in price when compared with Q1 of 2008.  The 2% increase is well within the normal oscillations – and so one could consider these prices as “stable.”  For coop buyers, Larchmont is a desirable location with many complexes located within easy walking distance of the train.  That combined with the easy walkable bedroom community right at your doorstep – has allowed prices of coops to remain relatively stable.

The cloud on the horizon is the overhanging inventory which shows no signs of easing given the current number of contracts and pendings.  At the current rate of sale, it will take 16 months to clear the current inventory.   Sales volume has varried slightly, but once again, this variance is within normal oscillations commonly seen in smaller markets.

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Much of Scarsdale is in full blown buyer’s market mode. In single family homes, the price drops and inventory issues have been extremely severe. The cooperative market has held up much better. The weakness in single family homes is in part a reflection of the stressed jumbo loan market. Since most homes in the coveted 10583 zip code fall into the high-end category – the market has been dealt a more severe blow than corresponding markets in White Plains and Hartsdale.

Scarsdale is a wonderful place to live and qualified buyers should be taking advantage of this rare opportunity.

Scarsdale Cooperatives:

Coop prices and inventory have remained remarkably stable over the past year with prices dropping less than 1% over the previous year. Volume was down 28% over Q1 of 2008 and the overhanging inventory is about 12 months. However, since we are now in the prime selling season with 20 units under contract or pending, the actual inventory is significantly lower than that. Prices are close to 8% off their highs from Q1 of 2007. But this is a far milder reduction than we’ve seen in other parts of the county.

The area is desirable with an easy commute to Manhattan, so its not surprising that prices have been resistant to the declines seen in other markets. Further, the price point for cooperatives inoculates them against the woes of the jumbo loan market. The charts below show just how resilient this market has proven to be.

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The buyers market that we are seeing in most parts of Westchester is also in force in Hartsdale NY. Inventories are high while sales remain slow. However, interest in buying has picked up and there are those who say that prices are near their bottoms.

Markets are by no means even. Areas near the train station seem to do particularly well when compared to outlying areas where a walking to Metro-North is not an option.

Cooperatives:

Prices stabilized this quarter to some extent. But this was on the heels of a significant price drop during 2008 particularly following the stock market crash. Prices will continue to remain weak due to high inventories and low volume. The change in volume of sales from Q1 of the previous year is a striking 65.4%. Only 9 cops sold during the first quarter compared to 26 the previous year.

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White Plains real estate defied gravity for three years. For a while – quite a while – it looked as if the housing recession would pass White Plains by with nary a flicker in the prices. The stock market crash on Wall Street shook the system up and prices have started to come down. Even before the crash, single family homes had started to decline in price. But Coop and condo sales remained stubbornly high. The only major sign of trouble was decreased sales volume, but as long as inventories remained low – with few people selling – higher prices were still tolerated.

Cooperatives:

The average price of cooperatives fell 10.9% over the previous year with an average price of $220,000. The fall in prices reflects a general weakness in sales volume combined with increased inventory. There are currently 134 units on the market sales volume at the end of the end of the first quarter of 20 units or about 7 units a month creating an overhanging inventory of 19 months.
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First, I want to apologize. I thought I posted this. The text was created several weeks ago. So I apologize for the tardiness of the post, but I think the information is still useful.

New Rochelle is an up-and-coming city that experienced tremendous growth during the housing boom. Those who look at White Plains and can’t quite afford the price tag, should take a second look at New Rochelle because it is heading in the same direction that White Plains took ten years ago. Although the current recession has put the boom in a holding pattern, all signs point to a strong recovery in the next few years. Further, this area has seen a significant price correction.

Cooperatives:

Prices tumbled 18.5% when compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. This is in stark contrast to the substantial price increase seen in the third quarter. It is probable that the price increase of the third quarter was an indication that buyers were very choosy and were only buying the cream – leaving the rest of the market to languish. The market crash acted to force sellers hands and those who needed to move dropped their prices. – hence the sharp decrease. This did help to relieve the overhanging inventory and sales volume in coops was actually up over the previous year. This movement in the coop market is a reflection of what has happened in other parts of the county.
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Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow have been in the midst of a buyer’s market for some time. This has been particularly true of the single-family home market in the area. The higher tax rates that some of the river towns deal with put this particular market into bearish mode rather early in the correction when compared to other areas of Westchester.

One of the symptoms of a buyer’s market is low volume. Volume was way down on the cooperative market. So much so that there weren’t enough sales to run pricing statistics with any accuracy – which is why they are omitted. Condo prices and volume were down significantly when compared to the previous year. But single family homes that have been really beaten down in the last few quarters – had a volume consistent with 2007 levels – significantly down from the boom era, but not the grim dip seen in other sectors. It might be an early indication that that particular sector is starting to stabilize. Of course it is way too soon to say anything definitive. Market bottoms are always judged with 20/20 hindsight!

Cooperatives:

There were only two sales for the 4th quarter – far too few to draw any meaningful conclusions on – except that this is a bear market for coops. Having said that, sales are low throughout the county and coops are a very small part of this particular market. Yes, its a buyers market, but with only 7 units for sale in a down market, how many sales could one expect?
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Larchmont is one of the few areas that has, in some sectors, escaped the worst of the bear housing market – at least for the time being. Single family homes in Larchmont have been particularly resilient. Cooperatives have undergone a mild price correction, but compared to other parts of Westchester, Larchmont is on firmer footing.

Cooperatives:

Sales prices are down about 10% from the previous year with an average price coming in at $241,000. That’s down from the third quarter, but the small number of actual transactions makes drawing conclusions tricky. There’s about 6 months of inventory on the market, but the number of units sold is up from the previous year.

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