Archive for the 'Real Estate Market Reports' Category
Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow have been in the midst of a buyer’s market for some time. This has been particularly true of the single-family home market in the area. The higher tax rates that some of the river towns deal with put this particular market into bearish mode rather early in the correction when compared to other areas of Westchester.
One of the symptoms of a buyer’s market is low volume. Volume was way down on the cooperative market. So much so that there weren’t enough sales to run pricing statistics with any accuracy – which is why they are omitted. Condo prices and volume were down significantly when compared to the previous year. But single family homes that have been really beaten down in the last few quarters – had a volume consistent with 2007 levels – significantly down from the boom era, but not the grim dip seen in other sectors. It might be an early indication that that particular sector is starting to stabilize. Of course it is way too soon to say anything definitive. Market bottoms are always judged with 20/20 hindsight!
Cooperatives:
There were only two sales for the 4th quarter – far too few to draw any meaningful conclusions on – except that this is a bear market for coops. Having said that, sales are low throughout the county and coops are a very small part of this particular market. Yes, its a buyers market, but with only 7 units for sale in a down market, how many sales could one expect?
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Larchmont is one of the few areas that has, in some sectors, escaped the worst of the bear housing market – at least for the time being. Single family homes in Larchmont have been particularly resilient. Cooperatives have undergone a mild price correction, but compared to other parts of Westchester, Larchmont is on firmer footing.
Cooperatives:
Sales prices are down about 10% from the previous year with an average price coming in at $241,000. That’s down from the third quarter, but the small number of actual transactions makes drawing conclusions tricky. There’s about 6 months of inventory on the market, but the number of units sold is up from the previous year.
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Hartsdale, NY is a very small market, so its important to understand that the statistics can vary a lot more than other areas that I cover. Having said that, Hartsdale appears to be in a full blown buyer’s market with almost all indicators pointing in that direction.
Cooperatives:
Coop sales accounted for 62% of the market during the fourth quarter. This is a strong example of a general trend. Entry level housing is moving more than midrange and high-end. Since most people in this market have nothing to sell, they can take advantage of the lower prices without taking a hit on the selling side.
Prices were down almost 7% over the 4th quarter of the previous year.
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White Plains is in buyers market mode with varying levels of weakness and strength in terms of high inventories and low sales volumes. Prices in some sectors are showing more strength than the inventories and volumes would suggest. However, these sectors have already undergone a substantive pricing adjustment and though inventories are still high, they are lower than the White Plains housing inventories from the 3rd quarter.
Cooperatives:
Coops showed a mild price increase over the same quarter from the previous year. However, the average price of $208,000 was down from the previous quarter. This makes some sense as the housing correction started to hit home in the fourth quarter of 2007. Further, the pent up need to buy is quite intense in our area. The correction from the previous quarter combined with lower interest rates probably pulled some fence sitters to get out into the market. There is roughly 4 months of inventory currently on the market which is also an improvement over the 5.5 month inventory of coops at the end of the 3rd quarter.
Westchester has been resistant to price decreases since 2005:
Until recently, the Westchester real estate market has been very resistant to the housing recession that has been headline news in many parts of the country. Don’t get me wrong, there were signs that the market was far softer. But average and median sales prices had held up and even increased since 2005 when the housing recession began.
Westchester prices are heavily influenced by its unique location:
Reasons for the resilience are many – but I will mention the most obvious one. There is this old saying: Real estate is location, location, LOCATION. Okay – I know its a cliche – but in this case it happens to be true. The primary reason Lower Westchester has remained on solid footing is its location. From most points, mid-town Manhattan is a 40 minute commute or less. The train ride is convenient and comfortable. That is a HUGE perk and people are willing to trade real money up-front in exchange for more family time, less wear and tear on their cars and gasoline. Ask anyone who has experienced the grinding commutes north and west of lower Westchester and they will tell you more than you ever wanted to know about how a long commute saps your strength, your wallet and family time. Although some of the stats ahead are not looking too pretty, this fact should be uppermost in everyone’s mind for when the market recovers – which it will.
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New Rochelle is a city that has been undergoing dramatic changes. During the boom new housing sprang up and the downtown is undergoing a major revitalization. When I go to downtown New Rochelle, I am reminded of what White Plains was like about 10 years ago.
New Rochelle had a mixed quarter price-wise showing an increase in sales price for single family homes and cooperatives. Condominium prices however, were down significantly. Overall, there is a lot of excess inventory which is an indication of a buyer’s market.
Cooperatives:
Coop sales prices were up significantly over the previous year (almost 20%.) This, in spite of the fact that sales volume was down about almost 30% and thee is a large overhanging inventory of about 1 year. It could be that only the “cream” of the coops actually sold – this creating an average price bump in the face of fewer buyers, but only time will tell the entire story here.
Condominiums:
Condo prices decreased 8.5% over the previous year and sales volume was down a full 20%. There is a great deal of inventory in this market as well – a full 18 months worth. Buyers have not had so much negotiatingroom in a long time. This is a definite buyer’s market where good deals can be found.
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Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow are among my favorite places to hang out in Westchester. You can’t beat the historic landmarks and the places like the Rockefeller Preserve for scenic beauty and a great walk. As much as I love the area, I must admit that housing market is in retreat and will probably remain that way until the Wall Street crash moves past the crisis stage and some stability returns to the job market.
The housing market has been slowing in the villages of Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow. This general weakness is seen across all housing sectors with single family homes taking the largest hit with respect to pricing. It is important to note that these closings were either completed or under contract prior to the stock market crash. So further reductions in pricing my occur.
Cooperatives:
Cooperative prices are down roughly 5% over the previous year. Sales volume is down 45% over the previous year with about six months of inventory on the market. Although this has all the earmarks of a buyer’s market, the actual numbers are small – so one shouldn’t read too much into the dramatic decrease in sales volume. Sales are down significantly and this is a buyer’s market – there is no doubt about that – but the 45% decrease would be 27% had there been just two more sales in 2008.
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Larchmont’s third quarter revealed a mixed market. Not as bearish as some other areas. Throughout this housing correction, several pockets in lower Westchester have shown themselves to be remarkably resistant to the downward trend in prices.
Larchmont has been one of these pockets, but there are signs now that this market is correcting – particularly with respect to single-family homes.
Cooperatives:
Cooperatives prices have remained strong and are up 6.7% over the previous year with an average price of $288,000. This statistic belies a marked weakness that I have casually observed. Units in prime condition are selling while those that are “fixers” seem to sit. The price increase may be a reflection of that casual observation. Nevertheless, there is only a 4.5 month supply of units – which though not bullish is hardly bearish. Further, the number of units sold this year is comparable to the number sold over the same period last year.
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The statistics for housing in Scarsdale during the third quarter of 2008 reflect the emergence of a buyer’s market in our area. Prices in Scarsdale along with many of the surrounding communities have been quite resilient. For a while they seemed to be impervious to the downturn affecting much of the nation, but this is no longer the case.
Cooperatives:
As you can see from the charts below, Prices for cooperatives fell about 13.5% when compared to 3rd quarter stats from 2007. The price drop was about $35,000. The number of units sold dropped roughly 17% from 40 to 33. and the unsold inventory indicates a near six month supply of cooperatives in the area.
This is a buyer’s market. and the price drop is significant. It is probably a very good time for buyers to be on the hunt. An interesting twist to this data is that since the stock market crash in September, there has been a marked increase in the number of contracts showing up on the MLS. This indicates that sellers are being realistic and that buyers are taking advantage of reduced prices along with low interest rates.
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The third quarter stats for Hartsdale mirrors the stats that I previously posted for White Plains in that a slow down and price drop in cooperatives and single family homes did not spread into the condo market.
Cooperatives:
The number of sales was down significantly from the previous year (33%.) This was reflected in lower prices with a 4% overall price drop observed. The drop in sales volume is significant and points to further weakness in this particular market. There is a five month supply of inventory, putting cooperatives firmly in buyer’s market territory. The average price for the third quarter of 2008 was $216,000.
Condominiums:
The average sales price of condos actually rose in value roughly 4.2% over the same period last year. The sales volume remains unchanged from the same period last year. The average price for a condo in Hartsdale during the third quarter of 2008 was $425,000 – up 4.2% from the previous year. There is only 3.8 months of inventory – indicating that the condo market remains relatively strong for sellers.
