The Westchester View » Scarsdale homes

Is now a good time to buy a home White Plains NY? The numbers say YES!!!

Ruthmarie Hicks — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 06:24:01 +0000

No one has a crystal ball so determining when a market is going to hit bottom is pretty much like shooting craps. Sooooo – anyone trying to TIME THE BOTTOM is clearly a gambler. Its not savvy, its not cool or even all that smart – and yes…it is RISKY to try to time the bottom.

Gambling on lower prices and lower interest rates….

People think that if they haven’t made a decision to buy that no decisions were made. That makes them feel “safe”. NOT TRUE. The buyer made a decision and that decision was to punt. So in reality, the buyer is rolling the dice that the market will decline more or at least not improve. They are also gambling that interest rates will remain at record lows. As one famous blogger (Lenn Harley) puts it to her buyer clients “The market will bottom six months before you decide its time to buy a home.”

Looking for local real estate trends…

All real estate is local. National numbers are next to useless in determining where any one local market is going. One way to peek behind the curtain and try to glean what is going on in the location of interest. Another tactic is to look at surrounding communities that influence real estate values in the area of interest.

White Plains Single Family Homes..

The chart below is of median prices over the past several years. The big knife fell in 2009 when prices dropped 12%. They were bolstered a bit in 2010. So far in 2011 the trend has been down – however – that 7% is skewed somewhat by the type of housing that sold. In 2010 – roughly 7% was at the low end (entry) level but in 2011 15% of the sales were entry level… while 15 % were at the highest end of the market. In 2010 the higher end accounted for over 20% of the sales. From my gleaning of the MLS data, prices drifted down about 3-4%. This indicates that price drops are slowing and you are bouncing along the bottom.

For all the charts – the red bars indicate prices before the market started to correct, the green bars are after the correction and the orange bar represents the current year. All data is derived from the EAMLS (Empire Access Multiple Listing Service).

Neighboring Markets Help set the trend….

The White Plains market is influenced by other neighboring markets in. Manhattan is key and moving up in price and volume. Mitchell Hall had an excellent Q3 report of that market. In addition, markets in neighboring towns exert a major influence and can help us glean what is likely to lie ahead for White Plains. Markets such as Scarsdale, Mamaroneck and Larchmont tend to be resilient. . People want to live there and when prices go down – those that couldn’t otherwise afford these areas rush in to buy while the prices are affordable.

As you can see from the charts below – these markets are on their way back up. They were a bargain in 2009 – but not so much anymore. White Plains is where many buyers go when these areas become less affordable. White Plains is a great alternative with housing prices that are generally lower and taxes that are more affordable than the likes of Scarsdale and Mamaroneck or Larchmont. With prices heading higher in the surrounding areas – these areas are rapidly becoming less affordable. But White Plains is STILL on sale…at least for the time being. Given where these other markets have been heading - White Plains is likely poised for a strong recovery in the foreseeable future.

So you can make a decision not to make a decision and wait (as Lenn Harley says) until “six months after the market hits the bottom” in order to buy. Of course that ensures that you will miss the bottom of the market and many of the advantages of a buyers market. So you see, staying on the fence is not necessarily “safe”.

Scarsdale NY Housing Market Statistics – Fourth Quarter 2009

Ruthmarie Hicks — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 08:53:03 +0000

The Scarsdale market began its correction towards the end of 2007. Scarsdale homes went down substantially in value through 2008. In spite of the financial meltdown at the end of 2008, the Scarsdale market has actually been firming up over the past year. Although this has not been smooth ride, there are signs that the market is stabilizing – or at least depreciating at a slower rate. In many ways the Q4 data reflects the Q2 data where year over year home values had started to nudge up. In Q3 many of these gains were erased, but they were back in the 4th quarter.

There are several issues that could derail this trend. Subsidies for mortgages will be ending putting pressure on interest rates. Further, Scarsdale is not immune to the shadow inventory of foreclosures that have yet to hit the market. the high-end will probably not be spared a share of short sales and foreclosures.

Scarsdale NY Cooperatives:

Cooperative sales prices remained stable from the previous year with the average sales price of $251,000 for both years. Sales volume was impressive when compared to the doldrums of the post-crash 2008 – up 72% over the previous year. The swollen inventories have decreased and there is only a 4.9 month inventory currently on the market. This is consistent with stable prices.

Scarsdale NY Condominiums:

Although Scarsdale is known for its find cooperatives particularly those along Garth Road (Eastchester municipality) near the village and train station. However, condominiums are few and far between. There were no sales of condos recorded on the MLS for Q4 2009. Christie Place will set the standard for condo sales in the future.

Scarsdale NY Single Family Homes:

Scarsdale homes had a very good quarter. Prices were up 24.1% over Q4 of the previous year. Inventories are down, but not out. A 6.7 month inventory is consistent with continued depreciation but in the single digits. Nevertheless, demand is way up from the near stand-still of Q4 2008 with sales volume being up 95% over the previous year.

Edgemont Single Family Homes (Scarsdale PO):

Prices were still down in Edgemont over the previous. Down 18.2% from the previous year. This drop is closer to what was seen in White Plains and Hartsdale during Q4. Sales volume was up 33% but with a 9.7 month inventory, prices are probably still falling.

An Important Note About the Criteria for the Statistics:

I handle each type of housing in Scarsdale differently. I also include a special section for single family homes in “Edgemont” which is really in the town of Greenburgh with a Scarsdale post-office and zip code.
For condominiums and cooperatives, I use the Scarsdale post office and zip code as my criteria. Many of these complexes are actually located in Greenburgh and Eastchester.

This reflects the way most buyer’s shop for housing. Coop and condo buyers work by address whereas those looking for single-family homes are often shopping municipality and school districts.

Further Reading:

Scarsdale NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Third Quarter 2009.

Housing and Market Statistics for Scarsdale NY – Second Quarter 2009.

Scarsdale NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Third Quarter 2009

Ruthmarie Hicks — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 09:12:20 +0000

Scarsdale NY housing has been in the cross hairs of the housing recession for a while now. Initially, it was resistant to the correction taking place in other parts of the country. Eventually the forces that had hit other parts of the country so dramatically, came home to roost even in the most resilient areas of Westchester. Real estate values in Scarsdale NY came under prssure as inventories swelled. The drop was severe. However, some of the numbers show signs of a bottom being at hand.

Cooperatives:

The number of co-ops sold are down 15% over the previous year. This is a trend that has been seen in other parts of the county and reflects the difficulties in obtaining financing. Currently there is a nearly 8 month inventory on the market. However, prices remain slightly higher than the previous year, (5.4%) indicating a market that is stabilizing. There are some mixed signals here. the inventory is still high however, the pricing is surprisingly robust.

Single Family Homes – Scarsdale:

After a “pop” during the 2nd quarter prices have once again fallen and are down 27% over the 3rd quarter of 2008. Swollen inventories are going down. Right now inventories are approaching th 6 month mark.

Single Family Homes Edgemont -

Edgemont shares ad PO with Scarsdale, but it is actually is in the town Greenbburgh. Sales have picked up in the area leaving inventories low at about 4.4 months.

An Important Note About the Criteria for the Statistics:

I handle each type of housing in Scarsdale differently. I also include a special section for single family homes in “Edgemont” which is really in the town of Greenburgh with a Scarsdale post-office and zip code.
For condominiums and cooperatives, I use the Scarsdale post office and zip code as my criteria. Many of these complexes are actually located in Greenburgh and Eastchester.