That question seems to haunt me these days. Sometimes it seems that the price for leaving my home to buy a quart of milk is to be asked that question at least once. Unfortunately, I generally leave my crystal ball at home.
The answer to that question in part depends on how you define “recover”. I’m not trying to be cute here. A buyers definition of “recover” may be entirely different from a sellers perspective which is different still from a homeowner who simply wants to refinance but can’t because of tighter lending standards.
To buyers who are turning up their noses at what I believe to be a once-in-a -lifetime opportunity – I often respond that the market will recover a year before they decide they have to buy. Those who are determined to time the bottom of a market are destined to miss it.
For sellers, the answer is more complex. What sellers are looking for is a robust market with a substantial price hike from present values. Although all bad things come to an end, if you are looking for the glory days of 2005-2006, you will probably have a long wait.
Some areas are recovering while others decline:
Some parts of Westchester NY are already recovering. In areas such as Scarsdale and Larchmont, we saw our fair share of competitive bidding this year. This breath of fresh air was restricted to single-family homes in specific municipalities. Prices in these areas are well off their lows in spite of continuing declines elsewhere. But some markets that had been remarkably resistant to correction took a sickening nosedive in prices. If you live in a high-end cooperative or a townhouse, you probably know what I am talking about.
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A few weeks ago, I noticed that my friend from the Manhattan real estate market – Mitchell Hall, had posted some very encouraging data. Manhattan is doing quite well in spite of the doom and gloom coming from the talking heads. All real estate is local – so what happens nationally has little bearing on individual markets. New York State was one of the stronger markets in the country. The New York metro area posted 3% gain in housing prices overall. The medain price was up 9% over the previous year and up 4% per square foot. Amazing performance given the state of the rest of the economy.
What does this mean for Westchester NY real estate? Well, as Manhattan goes – so goes Westchester. If prices in the city are edging higher eventually that wave hits Westchester as even hard-core Manhattanites consider mass immigration to….gasp…..the SUBURBS!!!! And Westchester – particularly lower Westchester is the most logical move.
For Manhattanites – Westchester is the location of choice when they make a move.
About a year ago, I was looking at a “heat map” of human migration across the US. The map showed areas of the country that were emptying out such as the rust belt as well as areas that were seeing increased populations. It was neat. When I clicked on Westchester, I couldn’t see anyone moving in. At first I thought our county was emptying out at a crazy rate….which made no sense….but then I realized that the map was too small. You couldn’t see the bee-line of immigration from NYC, Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island. When I increased the size of the map to its maximum – there it was. The fact is that Westchester is the location of choice for people leaving NYC. If Manhattanites were a herd of buffalo – Westchester would be tracking the periodic stampedes as obsessively as we track the weather.
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With the myriad towns and villages in Westchester NY its small wonder that people in search or Westchester NY real estate find our “system” of towns, villages, and PO’s a Byzantine mess of confusion. When looking for Westchester county homes for sale, buyers find that the address does not always match the municipality.
One of the more confusing aspects is towns vs. villages. The town of Greenburgh NY is actually a rather large town that comprises various villages and POs.
Greenburgh covers several river towns and also cuts a swath eastward to the central portion of the county.
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In general Larchmont NY homes for sale have been a bright spot in the Westchester NY real estate market – at least for single-family home sales. The combination of being highly commutable as well as an extremely walkable community makes it a very desirable destination for buyers who like the New York City lifestyle of leaving the car behind. the Larchmont to Grand Central commute is just a little over 30 minutes and more accessible to midtown Manhattan than many residential areas on the west side of Manhattan.
Unfortunately this bull market did not extend to the condo and coop market – which lagged seriously behind and is no encumbered by a large inventory overhang. This is a reflection of the Westchester coop market in general – which was down significantly.
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Truth be told, all listings are by their very nature – buyer’s bait. There is a rule out there in real estate land that states “you list, you last.” Although there are a few very notable exceptions to that saying -for the most part it is true. i have picked up buyers from listings even if they turned out not to be interested in the house in question but have subsequently bought a home through me.
These are tough times and in Westchester NY – listings are GOLD. Hard to come by but valuable once found. Agents are scrambling for listings – even though listings cost time and money and tend to stay on the market a long time. Why on earth would agents be so interested in something that is so time consuming and expensive? Because that rare – nearly extinct species – called “the qualified & motivated buyer” is attracted to listings like bees to honey. To capture buyers, most agents count on listings.
On the surface, there is nothing wrong with this. The listing agent’s job is to attract buyers to the listing. More traffic equals more offer which equals a better sales price.
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The Westchester NY real estate market has been in turmoil over the past 18 months since the stock market crash of 2008. Many parts of the county are still in decline, but some areas are perking up with lower inventories and lower prices. A few areas in the county are starting to see minor price increases. Real estate in Scarsdale NY is one such area. In general, this should be no surprise since there has always been a demand for Scarsdale NY homes. Such homes also include Scarsdale coops which are also quite desirable.
Scarsdale NY Single Family Homes – Scarsdale Schools
The average price for Scarsdale homes for sale – saw an average price increase of about 14% to $1,437,000. Although prices had not truly increased in such a dramatic way. It points to health in the market because is shows that higher end homes are actually closing. The banking crisis kept the larger homes out of the market place in Q1 of 2009. So this increase reflects a broadening of the viable market and not a true price increase. The price range of solds was far broader in 2010 than in Q1 of 2009. Prices ranged from $558,000 to $3,625,000.
Looking at sold listings, the inventory on the market is considerable over 15 months. However, if you look at contracts and pendings – the picture is brighter with a little more than five months of inventory. But that assumes that everything under contract will sell. The truth lies somewhere in between. This is still a buyer’s market – but it is definitely not a fire sale.
Edgemont Single Family Homes – Edgemont Schools – Scarsdale P.O.:
Average housing prices increased in Edgemont as did sales volume which was up 200%. The average sales price at the end of the first quarter was $1,608,000 – up from $840,000 at the end of Q1 in 2009. Interestingly, the price of lower end homes was static, but the price increase reflects the fact that higher end homes are now selling again. For example the highest priced home that sold in Q1 of 2009 was $1.1 million. But in Q1 in 2010 the highest priced closing was $4.2 million. So prices haven’t risen dramatically – but the price range closed sales has increased dramatically. There is still considerable inventory on the market – so this is still very much a buyer’s market. With respect to closed sales in Q1 there is a 15 month inventory. But there are many contracts and pendings in the pipeline. If you use that as your benchmark – the inventory is a little over six months.
Scarsdale NY Cooperatives:
Cooperatives in Scarsdale – including Garth Road with a Scarsdale P.O. – showed moderate gains in prices – up 3.8% over Q1 in 2009. The average sales price in Q1 of 201 was $246,000. Sales volume was static from the previous year and inventory vs. closings indicates that there is a 9.7 month supply of active listings if you look at closed sales from Q1 2010. Looking at contracts and pendings that goes down to 6.5 months.
An Important Note About the Criteria for the Statistics:
I handle each type of housing in Scarsdale differently. I also include a special section for single family homes in “Edgemont” which is really in the town of Greenburgh with a Scarsdale post-office and zip code.
For condominiums and cooperatives, I use the Scarsdale post office and zip code as my criteria. Many of these complexes are actually located in Greenburgh and Eastchester.
This reflects the way most buyer’s shop for housing. Coop and condo buyers work by address whereas those looking for single-family homes are often shopping municipality and school districts.
Further Reading:
Scarsdale NY Housing Market Statistics – Fourth Quarter 2009:
Scarsdale NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Third Quarter 2009:
Housing and Market Statistics for Scarsdale NY – Second Quarter 2009:
Scarsdale Coops – Pet-Friendly Scarsdale Country Estates
Scarsdale Manor Cooperative – Garth Road -Scarsdale NY
The Chauteaux Cooperative – Scarsdale NY
© Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.
Westchester NY real estate has been heavily impacted by the financial storm of 2008. In some areas, the storm continues to brew and in other areas – there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. White Plains NY homes are no exception to the rule. Last year saw a marked decline in the prices for single family White Plains NY homes for sale. Although there were significant declines in the condo an cooperative markets, these did not match what happened to single family homes. Sales volume was sluggish in spite of a strong buyer’s market.
The first quarter of 2010 the single family home market, is showing signs of strength. While the condo and cooperative markets appear to be showing signs of greater weakness.
Cooperatives – White Plains NY:
The average sales price of a coop in White Plains is down 16.4% over the 4th quarter of 2009 at $184,000. There were 29 sales recorded on the WPMLS in Q1 and the current inventory has 172 listings. Using these numbers there is nearly an 18 month inventory on the market – indicating significant weakness and a depreciating market. Contracts and pendings are encouraging – but assuming all of these contracts end in a sale – which never happens - there is still a near 10 month overhang of inventory. The bright spot in the market is that sales volume is a good deal higher – up 45% over last year when the markets were virtually frozen.
This is a market that represents opportunity for buyers and requires sellers to be very realistic. The pricing a the Broadlawn reflects this trend that is being seen throughout the White Plains market.
Condos – White Plains NY:
The average price of a condo in White Plains NY has gone down 14.8% from the first quarter of 2009. The average price of a condo in White Plains fell form $460,000 to $392,000. 23 sales were recorded on the WPMLS during the first quarter with an overhanging inventory of 161. That leaves a nasty 21 months of inventory on the market making this a strong buyer’s market. However contracts and pendings make this picture look a lot brighter and indicate an 8 month inventory. The reality probably lies somewhere in the middle of these two numbers. But either way, buyers have a strong upper hand. As with coops the volume of sales for Condos in White Plains is up 43% from Q1 2009.
The price range is interesting to note: In 2009 the high end of the market was not moving at all – this has changed. The price range according to the MLS ranged from $135,000 for a small studio to $1,220,000 at the Ritz Carlton.
Single Family Homes – White Plains NY:
Surprisingly – single family homes saw a price increase of 8.2% with the average sales price coming in at $643,000. The number of sales closed on the WPMLS was 39 – an increase of 34% from the totally stagnant market of Q1 2009. Although encouraging, a closer look indicates no true price increase. What we appear to have here is resurgence of sales at the upper end – skewing the data higher. This follows the pattern in the condo market. The number of months of inventory on the market 11 months if you look at closed sales, and 7 months if you look contracts and pendings.
This is a market that is showing a bit more strength than some other markets. It is still very much a buyer’s market. But the steep dip in prices that was 2009 has created a more healthy market in its wake.
Further Reading:
Jefferson Place – White Plains
© Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.
Yes, these old Timberland boots were used as flower pots! It’s an example of how out-of-the box thinking can transform something that would find its way into the the trash, can be turned into a spring time arrangement.
Whether buying or selling Westchester NY real estate, clients often need help with curb appeal. When selling, landscaping creates an inviting atmosphere that invites buyers into the home. Buyers, on the other hand, are often eager to put their own personal stamp on their gardens and may often be at a loss as to what to do or where to go.
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Whenever I go on a listing appointment, I generally find that the seller already has a “number in their head” about what their home should sell for. This number can come from various sources. It is – unfortunately – almost always higher than the current market can command.
In truth, I can’t blame sellers for this…their minds have been levered to continued price increases to such an extent that the current market has left most sellers blind sided.
The first thing I often hear is that “I need to get X out in order to buy my next home which I can now get for Y because its gone down in price. The trouble if the property you want to buy has gone down so much in price, chances are the property that you want to sell has gone down by a similar percentage. Wishful thinking is often the culprit here. Markets are fluid – that was fine when prices were going up – but it also holds true when prices decline.
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Yesterday I showed a foreclosure. Until fairly recently, Westchester hasn’t witnessed much in the way of “underwater” home ownership. We’ve always had our share of foreclosures, but they were far from commonplace. The house was a mess. The walls contained broken dreams of home ownership and you have to wonder about the people who lived there.
There have been a lot of blogs written lately about who is to “blame” for the housing bubble and its disastrous aftermath. Some bloggers blame lenders, some blame agents, brokers, NAR, the Fed, home owners…the list goes on and on.
But one common thread I find very discouraging are blogs which lay blame on the homeowner who was underwater. They should have KNOWN better. They were GREEDY. They were IRRESPONSIBLE, they were this, they were that…
In truth, the housing debacle is as much a result of the decimation of the middle class as it is about a housing bubble itself. Families have found the ground shifting under them faster than they could ever have imagined. Many homeowners have found themselves into the horns of a dilemma. This is the story of my generation. As a forty-something I’ve felt the sands shifting under my feet ever faster. I have found myself scrambling to earn those ever elusive extra dollars that will allow me to keep my own home – even as I help my clients sell theirs.
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