The answer to that question in part depends on how you define “recover”.  I’m not trying to be cute here.  A buyers definition of “recover” may be entirely different from a sellers perspective which is different still from a homeowner who simply wants to refinance  but can’t because of tighter lending standards.

To buyers who are turning up their noses at what I believe to be a once-in-a -lifetime opportunity – I often respond that the market will recover a year before they decide they have to buy.  Those who are determined to time  the bottom of a market are destined to miss it.

For sellers, the answer is more complex.  What sellers are looking for is a robust market with a substantial price hike from present values.  Although all bad things come to an end, if you are looking for the glory days of 2005-2006, you will probably have a long wait.

Some areas are recovering while others decline:

Some parts of Westchester NY  are already recovering. In areas such as Scarsdale and Larchmont, we saw our fair share of competitive bidding this year.  This breath of fresh air was restricted to single-family homes in specific municipalities.  Prices in these areas are well off their lows in spite of continuing declines elsewhere.  But   some markets that had been remarkably resistant to correction took a  sickening nosedive in prices.  If you live in a high-end cooperative or a townhouse, you probably know what I am talking about.

Supply and Demand: 

Housing prices reflect supply and demand.  You can not have a robust recovery until demand returns.  Although there are hopeful signs for the Spring of 2012, we saw those signs in 2011 and our hopes were dashed by the stock market correction that was the result of the Euro crisis. First time buyers were out in droves in the spring and summer. But any bad news gives  buyers a big case of cold feet and the rush back to their rentals and renew their leases.  What looked to be a great spring/summer market flopped miserably as buyers dove for cover.  With no demand prices sank again and many sellers couldn’t find buyers for their homes.

What happened to demand during the crash?

To get a perspective on this, here is a chart of simple housing sales volume since the year 2000.   The market in 2000 was not in bubble mode, it was a fairly normal, market. So the sales volume of 2000 -2001 could be considered a reflection of normal.  The bubble started and sales volume peaked  in 2004 to over 9800 properties sold.   Sales volume decreased from that point on  and finally crashes in 2008  tumbling  26% in a single year.  The declines continued in 2009.  Prices followed the loss in sales volume and there you have it – a housing crisis was born.

NOTE: All data was taken from the EAMLS and includes  sales  of single-family homes, condos and cooperatives.  Rentals, multifamily homes, and rentals were not included as they represent a different type of market.

Where are we now?

Sales volume in 2011 was down from the 2010 when the tax credit was in place, but up from the lows of 2009 by about 6%.  But we have a long way to go to get back to healthy demand.  We are 41% below the peak volume of 2004 and 26% off from the more normal market of 2000.

With demand remaining low sellers will have to think in terms of the long haul.  Although I have no crystal ball, these numbers and common sense suggest that a healthy market with regular price increases is a long way off.  With demand at such low levels, we could be bouncing along the bottom price-wise for about 5 years.

What should a seller do?  

So….if you want to move because your home is no longer affordable, or it no longer suits your needs (your family is growing or contracting)  it is probably wise to sell.  We can not live in a state of suspended animation forever and there is something to be said about getting on with your life.   If affordability is an issue, the continuing outlay will negate any real benefit of a price increases down the road.  Also, if you sell in order to purchase something that better fits your needs, you are going to do well on your purchase.  However, if you are comfortable  with your outlay and can sustain it with ease, or if your space is truly workable for several more years, then perhaps staying put is the best option.   There is no right or wrong answer and one-size certainly doesn’t fit all.

For further information about your area,  feel free to contact  me by phone – (914-374-5529) or email – (Ruthmarie.Hicks@gmail.com) or  you can simply fill out the form below – whichever method you prefer.  Don’t worry  – I do not sell, spam, or otherwise abuse your information!

© 2012 Ruthmarie G. Hicks http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

What does this mean for Westchester NY real estate?  Well, as Manhattan goes – so goes Westchester.  If prices in the city are edging higher eventually that wave hits Westchester as even hard-core Manhattanites consider mass immigration to….gasp…..the SUBURBS!!!!  And Westchester – particularly lower Westchester is the most logical move.

For Manhattanites – Westchester is the location of choice when they make a move. 

About a year ago, I was looking at a “heat map” of human migration across the US.   The map showed areas of the country that  were emptying out  such as the rust belt as well as  areas that were seeing increased populations.   It was neat.   When I clicked on Westchester, I couldn’t see anyone moving in.  At first I thought our county was emptying out at a crazy rate….which made no sense….but then I realized that the map was too small. You couldn’t see the bee-line of immigration from NYC, Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island.  When I increased the size of the map to its maximum – there it was.  The fact is that Westchester is the location of choice  for people leaving NYC.   If Manhattanites were a herd of buffalo – Westchester would be tracking the periodic stampedes as obsessively as we track the weather.

Westchester NY now has the amenities that city dwellers seek – this isn’t your parents suburb.

And why not?  Westchester has changed a lot over 20 years.  It is no longer the series of sleepy villages and towns of yesteryear. Once Manhattanites get over the mind set that Westchester is merely a country bumpkin backwater (which takes just one visit)  the benefits of living here are clear.    Its  costs a whole lot less and you get a lot more space without giving up the fine dining, shopping and entertainment that NYC has to offer.   Upscale restaurants and retail are everywhere and we are catching up in entertainment and the arts.  You don’t need to go to the city for a night out on the town or a first class shopping spree.  That’s all here now.  And if they want the city – its about 30 minutes away.    From some locations the commute to midtown and downtown is as easy or easier than some locations in the city itself and they can enjoy a smooth, easy and productive  20-40 minutes  on metro-north train rather than being crammed like a sardine standing for 30 minutes on a subway.

Soooo a healthy market in Manhattan is a harbinger of a healthy market in Westchester – particularly lower Westchester.  Areas within a 40 minute commute by metro-north are particularly attractive when prices are rising in the city.

© 2011 – Ruthmarie G. Hicks  http://thewestchesterview.com

One of the more confusing aspects is towns vs. villages.  The town of Greenburgh NY is actually a rather large town that comprises various  villages and POs.

Greenburgh covers several river towns and also cuts a swath eastward to the central portion of the county.

The Greenburgh Central School District comprises three zip codes and two PO address.

A good portion of the White Plains NY PO is not part of the City of White Plains.  Although adjacent White Plains NY, these areas are not part of that municipality.  This causes a great deal of confusion for buyers.   A large portion of the 10603 zip code and all of the 10607 zip code  are in Greenburgh and are zoned of the Greenburgh Central School district.   The Hartsdale  P.O. is also part of the Greenburgh Central School district.

Edgemont NY:

The famous Edgemont schools are often mistakenly confused with Scarsdale.   This is not surprising since the  PO address is Scarsdale and it shares the famous Scarsdale zip code (10583).   However, Edgemont is another Greenburgh P.O.

Elmsford  NY:

Elmsford is also part of Greenburgh and has its own school district. The zip code for Elmsford is

10523

Ardsley NY:

A village within the town of Greenburgh with its own school district.  The zip code is 10502

Hastings-on-Hudson NY:

A river town on the southern tip of Greenburgh  which abuts Yonkers – has its own school district and a zip code of 10706.

Dobbs Ferry NY:

Dobbs Ferry  NY is a  river town just north of Hastings-on-Hudson with its own school district.  The zip code is 10522.

Irvington NY:

The next river town up the line is Irvington Ny – once again it has its own school district. The zip code is 10533.

Tarrytown NY

The northern most river town in Greenburgh  – it is pictured together in green on the map with Sleepy Hollow  its “sister village.”  Sleepy Hollow is actually in the town of Mt. Pleasant.  Nevertheless both Sleepy Hollow and Tarrytown share a school district.  They also share the 10591 zip code.

As if this isn’t confusing enough the boundaries are not black and white.  You need to know what you are buying.  For example, there are portions of Tarrytown NY that are actually in Elmsford – even though they have a Tarrytown address and the 10591 zip code.

Working with a good real estate agent can help you sort out all these differences and help with the ins and outs of all of these communities.

Happy house hunting….

© 2011 – Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thwestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

Unfortunately this bull market did not extend to the condo and coop market – which lagged seriously behind and is no encumbered by a large inventory overhang. This is a reflection of the Westchester coop market in general – which was down significantly.

Larchmont NY Homes :

A resurgence in sales volume and pricing in Manhattan has pushed its influence northward to some of the more commutable high end areas of Westchester. During the summer season – inventories were low and it wasn’t unusual for buyers to be outbid on the home of their choice.

Median sales price of a single family home was up 23% to $1,008,000 over the previous year. Volume was up over 58% with 68 homes sold altogether. Does that mean that home values rose 23%? Not so fast! Although prices are up overall – that number reflects not only rising prices but a higher percentage of higher end homes sold. This reflects a pattern seen in other areas of lower Westchester where high-end buyers came back into a market that had been largely quiet in 2009. Although inventories were low throughout the buying season – they are edging up now. The number of contracts and pendings indicates a nearly 9 month inventory up from a 3 month inventory as reflected in closed sales. But since this market is seasonal – this is not an alarming trend.

For the first time in a long time, I am going to advise buyers that THEY need to be realistic and for those sitting on the fence – STOP. Get moving. The winter lull with record low interest rates may well be your last window of opportunity to buy into this market before increase grab a strong foothold.

Larchmont NY Cooperatives:

As stated above, the Westchester Coop Market was extremely slow during the third quarter of 2010. This was natural after a flurry of activity in Q2 which was the result of the home buyers tax credit. Buyers who were planning to buy in the summer or early fall – stepped up to the plate early to secure their $8000. The median sales price actually rose by 22% to $210,000 – however, this was more a reflection of the type of unit sold in 2009 than any actual price increase. So few units have sold it is fair to assume that there is downward pressure on prices, but coming up with a number would be difficult with only 5 closings to work with over the entire quarter. Sales volume is down 44% over the previous year. At this time, contracts and pendings indicate a 13.4 month overhang putting this market squarely in bear market territory. This inventory is easing slightly – closed sales had the inventory of the coop market at well over two years. Whether buyers are coming back in can’t be said.

Sellers who really need to sell – need to be realistic. Overpricing will cause any unit to sit – no matter how nice.

A Note to Buyers:
In spite of all the doom and gloom, I think that the upward trend seen in single family homes can not be ignored. I urge buyers to take advantage of this market because affordability is now higher than its been since the height of the last housing recession in the mid-1990s. With interest rates so low that they are at levels not seen since Eisenhower was POTUS – (well before I was even born – and I’m not young!) I would not press my luck. At this time that the chances of things becoming less affordable outweighs the chance that affordability will increase. The media has perhaps hyped the big bad bear market a bit too much.

A note about Larchmont NY Condos:

The number of condos sold makes evaluation difficult – however, most of what was said about the cooperative market applies to the condo market. This also reflects a general malaise in Westchester Condos generally.

In general when looking for Larchmont NY homes – buyers are buying into an area that is not only a wonderful place to call home, but a very resilient market in general.

Further Reading:

Larchmont NY Housing Statistics – Q2 2010

Larchmont NY Housing Statistics – Q1 2010

Larchmont Homes For Sale – Update On Homes Zoned for Murray Ave. Elementary

Larchmont Homes For Sale – Update on Homes Zoned for Chatsworth Ave. Elementary

*Note – All statistics are derived from raw data compiled by the WPMLS. When referring to Larchmont – I am including the village of Larchmont and the Larchmont P.O. which is part of the unincorporated portion of the town of Mamaroneck.

© 2010 – Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

These are tough times and in Westchester  NY – listings are GOLD.  Hard to come by but valuable once found.   Agents are scrambling for listings – even though listings cost time and money and tend to stay on the market a long time.  Why on earth would agents be so interested in something that is so time consuming and expensive?   Because that rare – nearly  extinct species – called “the qualified & motivated buyer” is attracted to listings like bees to honey. To capture buyers, most agents count on listings.

On the surface, there is nothing wrong with this.  The listing agent’s job is to attract buyers to the listing.  More traffic equals more offer which equals a better sales price.

However, when the main goal becomes attracting buyers for other properties this symbiotic relationship can morph quickly towards the parasitic.  Agents who will take anything – no matter how overpriced or unsellable  are not doing their sellers a service.   In the name of getting the phone to ring they could be throwing a seller who needs to sell under a bus.

Here are some possible red flags that sellers should be aware of.

1. If the agent walks in and proudly states that he/she has over 50 listings and they don’t have a staff working under them this can be a problem.

Few agents can handle that many listings without a team behind them.  This is a case where you need to know what the success rate is.  If the number of cancelled/expired listings exceed the number of sales over a year’s period that could be a red flag.  There are exceptions – for example if a large percentage of the listings are short sales.

2.  The agent that has listings literally everywhere.  Buyers agents traditionally cover a lot of territory, but listing agents really need to know the area.

In this case, just make sure they know YOUR area well.  Make sure he/she knows the specifics about your area.   If there are new developments planned for your area try to draw the agent out about that.   What matters is that he/she is familiar with your town and its issues and how location and school zoning impacts pricing.

3. If you ask what they are doing to promote the listing and they hem and haw – be careful.  There should be a definitive marketing plan.  If there isn’t – they may just plant their sign and disappear.

4. If hey are willing to take your listing price even when other agents have warned that you are pricing your home too high.

Overpriced listings may not sell – but they can still attract buyers  who will buy a home – just not yours.   Also, you can almost count on this agent showing up just long enough to jawbone you on lowering the price every few weeks.

Bottom Line:  In most cases – quality trumps quantity. As a seller you shouldn’t care how many listings an agent is holding.  But you should be concerned about what percentage of their listings actually SELL and the agent needs to be familiar with your area in terms of neighborhood, pricing and future plans for development.

© 2010 – Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

Scarsdale NY Single Family Homes  – Scarsdale Schools

The average price for Scarsdale homes for sale – saw an average price increase of about 14% to $1,437,000.  Although prices had not truly increased in such a dramatic way.  It points to health in the market because is shows that higher end homes are actually closing.  The banking crisis kept the larger homes out of the market place in Q1 of 2009.  So this increase reflects a broadening of the viable market and not a true price increase.  The price range of solds was far broader in 2010 than in Q1 of 2009.  Prices ranged from $558,000 to $3,625,000.

Looking at sold listings, the inventory on the market is considerable  over 15 months.  However, if you look at contracts and pendings – the picture is brighter with a little more than five months of inventory.  But that assumes that everything under contract will sell. The truth lies somewhere in between. This is still a buyer’s market – but it is definitely not a fire sale.

Edgemont Single Family Homes – Edgemont Schools – Scarsdale P.O.:

Average housing prices increased in Edgemont as did sales volume which was up 200%.  The average sales price at the end of the first quarter was $1,608,000 – up from $840,000 at the end of Q1 in 2009.  Interestingly, the price of lower end homes was static, but the price increase reflects the fact that higher end homes are now selling again.  For example the highest priced home that sold in Q1 of 2009 was $1.1 million. But in Q1 in 2010 the highest priced closing was $4.2 million.   So prices haven’t risen dramatically – but the price range closed sales has increased dramatically.   There is still considerable inventory on the market – so this is still very much a buyer’s market.  With respect to closed sales in Q1 there is a 15 month inventory.  But there are many contracts and pendings in the pipeline. If you use that as your benchmark – the inventory is a little over six months.

Scarsdale NY Cooperatives:

Cooperatives in Scarsdale – including Garth Road with a Scarsdale P.O. – showed moderate gains in prices – up 3.8% over Q1 in 2009.  The average sales price in Q1 of 201 was $246,000.  Sales volume was static from the previous year and inventory vs. closings indicates that there is a 9.7 month supply of active listings  if you look at closed sales from Q1 2010.  Looking at contracts and pendings that goes down to 6.5 months.

An Important Note About the Criteria for the Statistics:

I handle each type of housing in Scarsdale differently. I also include a special section for single family homes in “Edgemont” which is really in the town of Greenburgh with a Scarsdale post-office and zip code.
For condominiums and cooperatives, I use the Scarsdale post office and zip code as my criteria. Many of these complexes are actually located in Greenburgh and Eastchester.

This reflects the way most buyer’s shop for housing. Coop and condo buyers work by address whereas those looking for single-family homes are often shopping municipality and school districts.

Further Reading:

Scarsdale NY Housing Market Statistics – Fourth Quarter 2009:

Scarsdale NY – Housing and Market Statistics for Third Quarter 2009:

Housing and Market Statistics for Scarsdale NY – Second Quarter 2009:

Scarsdale Coops – Pet-Friendly Scarsdale Country Estates

Scarsdale Manor Cooperative – Garth Road -Scarsdale NY

The Chauteaux Cooperative – Scarsdale NY

© Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

The first quarter of 2010  the single family home market, is showing signs of strength. While the condo and cooperative markets appear to be showing signs of greater weakness.

Cooperatives – White Plains NY:

The average sales price of a coop in White Plains is down 16.4% over the 4th quarter of 2009 at $184,000.  There were 29 sales recorded on the  WPMLS in Q1 and the current inventory  has 172 listings.  Using these numbers there is nearly an 18 month inventory on the market – indicating significant  weakness and a depreciating market.  Contracts and pendings are encouraging – but assuming all of these contracts end in a sale – which never happens -  there is still a near 10 month overhang of inventory.  The bright spot in the market is that sales volume is a good deal higher – up 45% over last year when the markets were virtually frozen.

This is a market that represents opportunity for buyers and requires sellers to be very realistic.  The pricing a the Broadlawn reflects this trend that is being seen throughout the White Plains market.

Condos – White Plains NY:

The average price of a condo in White Plains NY has  gone down 14.8% from the first quarter of 2009.  The average price of a condo in White Plains fell form $460,000 to $392,000.  23 sales were recorded on the WPMLS during the first quarter with an overhanging inventory of 161.  That leaves a nasty 21 months of inventory on the market making this a strong buyer’s market.  However contracts and pendings make this picture look a lot brighter and indicate an 8 month inventory.  The reality probably lies somewhere in the middle of these two numbers.  But either way, buyers have a strong upper hand.  As with coops the volume of sales for Condos in White Plains is up 43% from Q1 2009.

The price range is interesting to note:  In 2009 the high end of the market was not moving at all – this has changed. The price range according to the MLS ranged from $135,000 for a small studio to $1,220,000 at the Ritz Carlton.

Single Family Homes – White Plains NY:

Surprisingly – single family homes saw a price increase of 8.2% with the average sales price coming in at $643,000.   The number of sales closed on the WPMLS was 39 – an increase of  34% from the totally stagnant market of Q1 2009.   Although encouraging, a closer look indicates no true price increase. What we appear to have here is resurgence of sales at the upper end – skewing the data higher.  This follows the pattern in the condo market.  The number of months of inventory on the market 11 months if you look at closed sales, and 7 months if you look contracts and pendings.

This is a market that is showing a bit more strength than some other markets.  It is still very much a buyer’s market. But the steep dip in prices that was 2009 has created a more healthy market in its wake.

Further Reading:

White Plains NY Housing Market Statistics – Fourth Quarter 2009

White Plains NY Housing Market Statistics – Third Quarter 2009

Housing and Market Statistics for White Plains NY – Second Quarter 2009

The Broadlawn – White Plains NY

Trump Tower – White Plains

Jefferson Place – White Plains

Gedney Farms – White Plains NY

© Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

Whether  buying or selling Westchester NY real estate, clients often need help with curb appeal.  When selling, landscaping creates an inviting atmosphere that invites buyers into the home.  Buyers, on the other hand,  are often eager to put their own personal stamp on their gardens and may often be at a loss as to what to do or where to go.

Carlson’s in White Plains has expert advice and marvelous arrangments for both home and garden a like.  The arrangments can run the gamut from highly formal to totally funky.  I particularly like to go there during the different holidays – such as Easter, Christmas, New Years, Halloween  to see what they have.   Over the years  I’ve mentioned Carlson’s in several blogs. I’ve taken many photos of the arrangements. So I compiled the photos into a video.  I thought it would be a nice diversion from the rain and wind we are expecting this weekend.  Enjoy.

Carlson’s Floral & Gift is located at 625 Dobbs Ferry Rd., White Plains NY 10607 – 914-684-6084

© 2010 Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com. All rights reserved.

In truth, I can’t blame sellers for this…their minds have been levered to continued price increases to such an extent that the current market has left most sellers blind sided.

The first thing I often hear is that “I need to get X out in order to buy my next home which I can now get for Y  because its gone down in price.    The trouble if the property you want to buy has gone down so much in price, chances are the property that you want to sell has gone down by a similar percentage.  Wishful thinking is often the culprit here.  Markets are fluid – that was fine when prices were going up – but it also holds true when prices decline.

Misinformation is another issue.  Many sellers look at what their neighbor is asking for their home.  Asking isn’t getting.  Many listings are overpriced  in this market – so setting your price on the basis of other listings is not a wise strategy.

“But my neighbor sold their house for X just six months ago!”  Six months is a lifetime in a depreciating market.   If your market is depreciating – and many markets still are – then prices have decreased over six months.

Zillow zestimates and other information on the internet may or may not be accurate.  Zillow has been off as much as 25% in our area.   So if the zestimate of your property seems too good to be true, it probably is.

If you need to sell, price your home competitively – this is particularly important in a declining market where inventories are high and buyers are few. Overpricing your property will result in fewer or no showings.  The property will sit as the market declines further – resulting in an even lower price down the road.   Overpricing a home is just about the worst thing you could do in this competitive market.

© 2010 Ruthmarie G. Hicks – http://thewestchesterview.com – All rights reserved.

There have been a lot of blogs written lately about who is to “blame” for the housing bubble and its disastrous aftermath. Some bloggers blame lenders, some blame agents, brokers, NAR, the Fed, home owners…the list goes on and on.
But one common thread I find very discouraging are blogs which lay blame on  the homeowner who was underwater.  They should have KNOWN better. They were GREEDY. They were IRRESPONSIBLE, they were this, they were that…

In truth, the housing debacle is as much a result of the decimation of the middle class as it is about a housing bubble itself.   Families have found the ground shifting under them faster than they could ever have imagined. Many homeowners have found  themselves into the horns of a dilemma.  This is the story of my generation.  As a forty-something I’ve felt the sands shifting under my feet ever faster.  I have found myself scrambling to earn those ever elusive extra dollars that will allow me to keep my own home – even as I help my clients sell theirs.

The middle class has been under assault for the past 30 years.
Elizabeth Warren outlined it the best in the presentation embedded below.  For those who don’t have 50 minutes to view the video – here is a brief synopsis:

Dr. Warren did a series of studies comparing  the income and expenses of a family of four living in 1970-1971 to a family living in 2005-2006.  The summary of her findings gives us eye-opening insight as to what has happened to the middle class.

Income & Savings:

• Overall income went up for COUPLES.
• Income for males decreased when adjusted for inflation.
• So the bump we got in overall income  came from having a second worker.
• Salaries have actually been flat or have been decreasing over this period.
• In 1970 savings was 11%
• In 2005 savings was under 0%  (debt had increased)
• Revolving Debt up from 1.4% to 15%  of income.

How did this happen?
Was it rampant materialism combined with childish irresponsibility?

Where did the money go?

• Clothing: Families are spending 32% LESS on clothing then they were in 1970.
• Food:  including eating out:  Families are spending 18% less on food than in 1970.
• Appliances: Families are spending 52% less than in 1970
• Car ownership:  Families spent 24% less on each automobile in 2005 then in 1970.
• Electronics – including internet and computers:  up $300 a year from 1970.

So it wasn’t traditional “luxury items” that got people into trouble.  The electronic craze, such as wide -screen TV’s play nominal role at best.

Here’s where prices went UP, UP and away….

• Home: There was a 76% increase in housing costs due to higher prices and taxes.  But the average size of  a home increased by an average of one room.
• Health Insurance: (via employer only)  Up 74% from 1970.
• Cars: Outlay up 52%  to account for the need for two cars once both husband and wife are working. Increased 52% – because most are now 2 car families because both parents employed.
• Childcare – up 100% (since the mother was mostly home in 1970)
• Taxes:  The tax rate is up 25% due to having a second earner and thus higher overall income.

Here is the trouble – the expenses that are down are the flexible expenses.  The expenses that are up are not flexible.  The expenses that are UP are what Elizabeth Warren calls “Fixed, relentless expenses.”

Increased Vulnerability:

• Families need BOTH incomes to make the mortgage.  There is no leeway if someone gets sick and no one to put in the workforce to replace the person that has died, become sick or incapacitated.

• The risk shift: Warren sites Jacob Hacker’s work -  on the risk shift.  Here they analyze the risk of a 20% drop in family income.  Income volatility is up nearly 20%.  This is in good part due to the fact that since both workers are needed to sustain income, the risk of incapacitation or layoff DOUBLES.

• Health Care is totally dysfunctional…Warren sites the tremendous vulnerability families have to health care.

1. Lack of insurance coverage. More and more middle class losing coverage.
2. Decreased health care – releasing patients quicker and sicker.  (I can attest to that with my father. The hospital is forever releasing him TOO SOON – dumping the burden of care on my shoulders. This has wrecked havoc with my business as it sits. But I was a 9-5 worker – it could  – probably would – cause me to LOSE my job.  Sending home sick people saves insurers money – but it foists what should be nursing care on the family who is already working full tilt to meet the bills. Warren calls this “just one more push” over the edge if there is a serious illness. She sites illness as a major and “direct income impact.”
3. Warren sites “faux insurance” – where people think they have good insurance until they get sick.

So, next time we see a family in trouble. Let’s not think ill of them. Let’s stop pointing fingers.  Remember if you point a finger and look in the mirror – you see a finger pointed back at you.

For those who ended up leveraged to the hilt – I can see how it could have happened.  As their income potential kept declining, they kept thinking “I am smart, I work hard, I have a good reputation in my field and I play by the rules – so things will get better – this is only temporary.”  In previous recessions this would have been the case.  But the last recovery was truly jobless.   The rich got richer, but the middle class went nowhere.  They never even recouped the ground they lost in the crash of 2000. So they borrowed on their homes which went up in value thinking “this will pass – its GOT to pass.”  Everyone felt that  eventually things would get back to normal and the jobs and money that went with them would flow freely once again.  But things didn’t get back to normal.  That was the “old normal.” Instead, we have a “new normal” which  is an unacceptable normal where the middle class are being pushed off the cliff and into the abyss.

Lets also remember that the bottom line here is jobs, jobs, JOBS.  We need to swing the doors wide open on well paying career opportunities.  We need to stop out-sourcing, downsizing, and importing cheap foreign labor and keep well-paying jobs HERE in America.

© 2010 Ruthmarie G. Hicks. http://thewestchesterview.com.  All rights reserved.