After doing the series on the roaring river towns, I thought it might be a good idea to take a look at towns have had a different growth trajectory. In this case, I am looking at towns that came roaring back to life out of the ashes of the great recession in 2012 or earlier. Most of these areas are booking reasonable price gains in 2017, but the trajectory has slowed down a bit for some of them.
This is what happens when a recovery is as granular as this one was in the early years. When tiny slivers of real estate book almost all the gains, eventually other areas will eventually catch up. The areas that benefitted in the initial part of the cycle end up taking a bit of a breather. Most post price gains, but at a slower rate. This is not an unhealthy sign. It can be a pause that refreshes, preventing the market from overheating.
Scarsdale is such a town. Very desirable with a super-easy commute. Although it is landlocked, its location on the Harlem Line creates an ideal commute. It’s a town that immediately comes to mind when people from Brooklyn or Manhattan think about a move to Westchester.
The housing market in general hit the bottom around 2012. Scarsdale was already posting gains in median prices. Up about 8% from 2011. The prices backed off a bit in 2013, but in 2014 prices were up over 15% from 2013. All in all from the bottom of the market in 2009 to 2017 (YTD – 7/31/17) median prices are up over 36%.
Note that the chart showing the number of days-on-market (DOM ) has been consistently low since 2014. This is an indication of a strong market.
For the market in 2017, there have been modest gains. YTD median prices are up 2%. But given the big gains booked from previous years, this slow down could be considered a good sign. Anything else would make this market overheated. Right now there are 144 active listings with 56 under contract. That technically means that there is a bit less than 5 months inventory on the market. But median days on market (DOM) are quite low. 38 days means that inventory is moving well.
Home buyers need to realize that though the upward swing in prices is more moderate, prices are still rising. Westchester in general is in strong bull market territory. The short DOM also means that there is competition for homes and that seller’s are in the drivers seat. Sellers need to be aware that they can’t count on big gains in the market. Other regions are trying to play catch up and until they do, price increases will be more moderate.
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